Keep out Californians: How high home prices in California migrate into other states where Californians follow.
It is well documented that the middle class of California has been migrating out of the state for well over a decade. A large part of the population growth is coming from births and foreign migration. Foreign buying of real estate has accelerated in the last decade and has helped to push prices up in many California cities. Many owners are enjoying the large gains in equity if they sell. You don’t get to enjoy that equity until you close escrow and some Californians are cashing in those lottery tickets and heading out to more affordable places. In some areas this is causing prices to increase. During the last bubble California was a big player in inflating Nevada and Arizona real estate as people were buying second homes and investment properties. This time, you are seeing people buying for long-term purposes of relocation. Not everyone is thrilled about this trend especially local families in said markets that now find themselves priced out. All this does is makes the renterfication of the country more pronounced. In Portland people are becoming active and placing anti-California stickers on real estate signs.
Keep out Californians
Many people need to stay in California because of work and family obligations. Yet when we look at the data we find that many homeowners are older in age. If you are able to find a lower cost of living state, you can truly maximize that equity lottery ticket you have. Taco Tuesday boomers are cashing in and are heading to various parts of the country. But when you have many people targeting one place, prices can and will get pushed up especially in the midst of a mania.
Portland has become one of those target areas and some residents are not happy:
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“(Oregon Live) Portlanders apparently upset with the direction of the local housing market are slapping “no Californians” stickers on For Sale signs in the city, real estate agents say.â€
“A lot of these homes are going into bidding wars and going over ask price,” Irvine said. “And a lot of these guys are getting outbid. And I think they’re going around to agents who have properties that have sold over ask price and putting anti-California stickers.”
Of course Californians can only purchase so much real estate. The mania is forming across many metro areas thanks to low interest rates and tight inventory. Add in out-of-state buyers and you can understand why prices are moving up. But who does this benefit? It benefits those selling in California and leaving. It benefits the homeowner in the targeted location. But it makes it tougher for local families that didn’t benefit from the wild price gains of other states (i.e., San Francisco tech mania). Ultimately this trend simply adds more fuel to the growing number of renter households.
You also have other locations like Austin Texas. This hipster paradise has seen a lot of movement from Californians. Net migration out of California is very real especially to Texas:
Texas has become the number one destination for Californians leaving the state. Once in awhile we get the comment about “leaving the state†and when you look at the data, a large number of working class and middle class Californians have already done so.
“(The Daily Signal) About 5 million California residents left the Golden State during the past decade, marking an “unprecedented†number according to a report released this week.
The Sacramento Bee analyzed tax return data from the Internal Revenue Service between 2004 and 2013, the height of the housing crash and recession, which impacted California more sharply than most states.
During that time period, about 3.9 million people moved to California from other states, leaving a net migration population loss of more than 1 million people.
Texas attracted more Californians than any other state, drawing 600,000 residents.â€
Yet the large group moving out is likely to be non-homeowners. Now we are seeing what lottery ticket homeowners are doing with their equity and they are continuing the tradition of inflating real estate prices in other markets. Some folks are not taking kindly to this:
I’ve heard from people going to Portland, Tucson, Boulder, Austin, and Miami to leverage their big California equity. If you are heading into retirement, this is probably a very wise move to cut down on your cost of living expenses.  I know we have a few readers from Oregon and Washington so I’d be curious to hear your experience.
What other markets are seeing this trend?
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81 Responses to “Keep out Californians: How high home prices in California migrate into other states where Californians follow.”
Doc, this is nothing new. I was seeing “Stop the Californication of Oregon!” bumper stickers back in the ’80s.
Lived in Portland ’73-’75; same thing then – Don’t Californicate Oregon” was the popular bumper sticker.
Hey Doc. This type of situation goes back quite far. Back in the mid 90’s I was traveling on business to Boise Idaho. And over lunch one day with a client (A native of SF who had relocated to Boise recently) he commented that he had the antennae broken off his car and the rear views mirrors smashed. I gave him a puzzled look and he said to me ‘it was the California license plates, I made the mistake of not getting my car registered in Idaho when I moved here’. He said that many Boise natives were pissed off at Californians… I said why is that. He said “first of all, we sell our homes in California for a lot of money, come cruising into Idaho able to make all-cash offers on homes (or major down payments) THEN because we love moving out of the rat race of LA or SF, we take jobs without much negotiation on salary because we are happy to live in a beautiful small town with nearby mountains and lakes…the locals here face higher home prices and employees willing to work for less money…’
That’s exactly what we went through in Arizona, and those are exactly the reasons we hated Californians moving in. Californication has been very difficult on the people of the surrounding states (with the exception of land developers, of which no more rapacious animals exists).
The real issue then would come down to how those locals actually know from an employer’s perspective just exactly what was offered during negotiations? Since obviously those locals aren’t in a management position to begin with based off their hostility.
Those who put the “No California†stickers on the for sale signs are probably all California transplants.
Sellers and Realtors could care less, money talks.
The last time I was in Oregon, a lady running a gift shop in Grants Pass, asked me where we were from.
I looked down and said, Bay Area.
She said, don’t be ashamed to say you are from California, I have lived there off and on several times.
And every time I crossed the state line into California, my pay doubled.
Funny…when I lived in Mississippi and told folks I was from California, they were always friendly, sometimes would ask me about what it was like to grow up near redwoods and so on. Never had a problem with anyone from the deep south.
Then I moved to Florida and got a bunch of snotty comments from a culture that is far lazier, with more drunkenness and beach bum shallow party types there then in California.
Lesson for me: people who work hard know there’s good and bad people wherever you go.
I bought a house in AZ in 2011. Shortly after buying while working in the yard the next door neighbor came over, said “I wanted to meet the person who bought MY house”. Huh? “YOUR house was supposed to be MY house, I bid on it, you outbid me.” He asked if I was from CA, I said yes, he scoffed, we’re tired of Californians coming here, messing up the RE market, natives can’t buy a home for a family to live in. He told me he ended up buying the house next door, it came up for sale a few months later. I told him I had also bid on HIS house, he outbid ME. He smiled. He’s a good neighbor. I respect his viewpoint, unlike many of my CA neighbors, babbling about what Zillow says their house is worth (its always too low), their latest “workout”, a new Kale recipe that Oprah or Ellen highly recommends, $200 yoga pants, more selfies at the beach/Runyon Canyon with the rescue dog, “DO YOUR PART”, “PAY YOUR FAIR SHARE”, “ITS FOR THE CHILDREN”, blah blah blah, selfies at sunset, too precious.
I concur, anti california in PDX goes way back. Anyone planning on getting something for less in PDX, for get it, too late.
The house I bought in Portland in 1986 for 39,000, which I sold in 1999 for 153,00 and is now about 400k on a noisy street and 1080 square feet 2bed 1.25 bath 1 car. Had a full unfinished basement as most Portland houses do.
I nice 3 bed 2 bath is easy 700 k, I can get that in eastern city limits of San Diego, WITHOUT the suicidal weather.
Hardly. We moved to Portland almost a year ago, and you still get a lot of house for $500K in-close with good schools, but things are certainly bubbly here, which is why we’re waiting to buy.
We’re often embarrassed to admit we’re from California, but we find that many of the people that we meet came from California, at some point.
Forgot to mention that, even in this bubble climate, my friends bought a home last month in Mt. Tabor with good schools for $390K. It’s a 4/2, 1800sq ft.
This seems like such a meaningless observation, since California has 37 million people. It’s lke saying housing prices goo up, if people from Boston through Atlanta move to Maine.
LoL OK, so what does that mean?
Indeed, we are the new “New Yorkers.” I remember in the 80s & early 90s many folks in the SFV sported “Welcome to California, now go home” bumper stickers (remember bumper stickers?) New York is still there, and pricier than ever. I expect that’ll happen here.
The worst part of people who migrate out of liberal governed states like California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, etc. is that most of them take their bad voting habits with them. Texas, Florida and North Carolina were solid Republican states. Now because of the mass migration from the above states, they are slowly turning Democratic/blue states.
A coworker left Chicago, Illinois for North Carolina. His reason: high property taxes, income taxes, bad schools, too much government meddling, etc. He still votes straight Democrat in the Tar Heel State. Enough said!
While it should be obvious, Democrats and Republicans are two sides of the same coin. Their primary interest is catering to their corporate overloads, and only token considerations are afforded to their constituents. In the current age, it probably matters little whether the people in charge have a “D” or “R” in front of their name.
Yes, the majority of the candidates are corporate/wall street shills… which is why the non-corporate funded candidates at either end are getting so much attention (Trump on the right, Bernie on the Left). We live in interesting times, my friends. Interesting times.
Well said, Responder. Time to get past the left right crap. Neither of the parties has the interests of the public in mind.
And yet, those Dem stats you love to bash are the ones that are funding everything. Your precious tar-heel state is dependent on US federal money and gets >$1 for every dollar paid in taxes. Money which comes from states like California (we get 0.86 Fed $ for each we send to Uncle Sam). About 11% of California gets food stamps… OVER 15% of North Carolina gets Food Stamps. I hope the south secedes so they can pay their own way. California is one of the few stats that could self-support.
Meant to include this for the naysayers: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/05/which-states-are-givers-and-which-are-takers/361668/
Source is The Atlantic which is moderate-right-conservative political magazine
The ultimate in “wealth redistribution”. Success. Totally in keeping with statist principles though revenue sharing was passed by the idiot Nixon back in the 70s.
According to statistics California has 12% of US Population and 33% of the total US Welfare Recipients. The reason behind it is that CA actually pays more welfare per a recipient then other states. It’s actually more beneficial to be poor in CA the in other states. So people actually move to CA to receive hand-outs. Isn’t CA grand?
The blue states like California that try to lift up the poor with high taxes, high welfare benefits, high minimum wages and other Robin Hood policies tend to be the places where the rich end up the richest and the poor the poorest.
California is the prototypical example. It has the highest tax rates of any state. It has very generous welfare benefits. Many of its cities have a high minimum wage. But day after day, the middle class keeps leaving. The wealthy areas such as San Francisco and the Silicon Valley boom. Yet the state has nearly the highest poverty rate in the nation. The Golden State, alas, has become the inequality state.
http://dailysignal.com/2015/04/19/these-blue-states-have-tried-the-elizabeth-warren-model-their-residents-are-fleeing/
A study from George Mason University’s Mercatus Center shows that Democrat California is one of the most fiscally IRRESPONSIBLE states. Is anyone surprised?
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/07/08/dirty-dozen-liberal-blue-states-going-broke/
Red states, like Texas, Georgia and Utah, have done a better job over all of offering a higher standard of living relative to housing costs and residents also benefit from much lower costs of living. For a middle-class person , the American dream of a big house with a backyard and a couple of cars is much more achievable in low-tax Arizona than in deep-blue Massachusetts.
I was going to write the above, but Nimesh wrote it for me.
Aren’t the prices driven skyward here because of all the people who move here from somewhere else? Let’s just sell to people born in California. That’s the ticket.
Equity Migrants! In a way, I can’t blame them for checking other locales… with plenty
of WATER.
Oregon is a great state to visit, but leave California to live in Oregon more cheaply. You’re giving up better weather, to live in a state that is treading down the same road to “High Cost Of Living Ville” as it’s bigger neighbor to the south. Go east to retire, friendlier people, better housing,lower cost of living, and much better weather.
….and one more question. Why don’t Oregonians work to repeal growth control, rather than put silly stickers on signs?
“Why don’t Oregonians work to repeal growth control, rather than put silly stickers on signs?”… So, more growth will prevent the migration of Californians to OR, how exactly? I must admit, the logic of this seems backwards to me.
LTRESurvivor: So, more growth will prevent the migration of Californians to OR, how exactly?
Nobody says more growth will prevent migration. But more growth WILL lower home prices. Isn’t that what you want?
It’s simple Economics 101. Lower the supply, prices go up. Raise the supply, prices do down. (Assuming demand remains constant.)
People on this blog have long been saying that one reason for high home prices in California is LOW INVENTORY (i.e., low supply).
Oregon’s low growth policies create LOW INVENTORY of houses. If Oregon were to embrace more growth, it would RAISE INVENTORY and thus LOWER HOME PRICES.
greyhounddog’s point should be obvious to anyone with at least average intelligence, especially if they’re a longtime reader of this blog.
If Californians stay, people complain about us sponging off of our Prop 13 benefits.
If Californians move, people complain about us driving up others’ home prices.
Seems whatever Californians do, we’re evil.
People love to hate Californians!
Of course, they dismiss us at their own risk. California is 20% of the entire U.S. Population and we are a net contributor state sending a huge surplus to the Federal Budget that makes taker stats like Mississippi, Alabama and -most especially- FLORIDA able to have low-taxes while feeding at the US Tax Payer funded trough.
Florida has spent Billiion$ trying to emulate the biotech success of San Diego. They have had virtually ZERO success… and the people working there are always trying to move out (to Cali for researchers, to Maryland for Vaccine people, to NY/NJ & Boston for large Pharma people). The universal refrain: Cheap housing comes with a cost. That cost is living in Florida.
If Californians stay, people complain about us sponging off of our Prop 13 benefits.
If Californians move, people complain about us driving up others’ home prices.
Seems whatever Californians do, we’re evil.”
Considering that most Californians aren’t in a position to benefit from Prop 13 and are being negatively impacted by it, making the case that somehow it contributes to making all Californians “evil” is quite the stretch.
For every Californian that moves into your neighborhood, 100 people moved into ours.
Most of us would have rather stayed, but are overwhelmed with years of influx.
Don’t like us moving into your state? Imagine how we feel. Your problems are minor…..
Dac-
BRAVO, as always for tying in what the primary mechanisms are here: Dumb money entering tech. Back that up to QE’s and we’ve got a really nice package.
Reno is seeing a massive increase in home prices. We bought a foreclosure in 2011, almost doubled when we sold it in May (we did a lateral shift into a ranch with acreage which is not nearly as desirable as the stuco-chickenwire shit-shacks with ridiculous HOA’s…go figure). Since may our old place has gone up (Zestimate) 15%. Lots of flight out of CA, also some decent infrastructure developments with Tesla and many others companies coming to town. I’d say it’s generally good stuff other than we mine water here!
If (if) Californians can sell their property and buy elsewhere out of state and turn a profit…stock up on the essential goodies because I do believe bad things this way comes.
Sneezy67: What does your post mean? Can you translate in English? What essential goodies? Candy, water, hookers and blow? I’m very confused…
I think California’s big export was the land use policies the good doctor has pointed to as the nexus of California’s woes. I’m looking at you Portland. When they adapt the restrictive policies we’ve labored with for 50 years they shouldn’t be surprised when they get similar results. Portland is very restrictive with their building permits with a strict city limits law that won’t approve or extend utilities outside the boundaries.
Did they somehow think they could emulate our draconian use laws but somehow have different results?
Sure, those practicing a California diaspora are going to increase prices. You can’t repeal Supply and Demand but if a bunch of migrants have wads of cash there’s an easy solution – build more houses.
One of the items we track for housing economic data is the net migration of prime home buying age ( 30-39)
California has been losing this group of people for years now to places like Las Vegas, Atlanta and areas of Arizona primarily for shelter cost and income capacity of their desired job in relationship to cost of living
Last December at the BNY Mellon Stock Conference I spoke like on Bloomberg Financial showing my model that has 82% of CA population priced out of housing
limf (x) = Sky
x-a
Is not a economic model for housing in California based on
PITI = DTI +LTI (HC)
My interview is here
http://loganmohtashami.com/2014/12/04/bloomberg-financial-interview-at-the-bny-mellon-conference-housing-reality/
How can 82% of Californians be priced out of housing when 55% of us already own our homes? I think you forgot to consider how much equity so many of us have.
“How can 82% of Californians be priced out of housing when 55% of us already own our homes? I think you forgot to consider how much equity so many of us have.”
Easily: they’re grandfathered in from a period before they restricted supply.
As a millennial, I’m watching anyone who is not native flee eastward. I’m one of the only people staying and that’s because my income is nearly 200% of the median. Even then I was considering leaving before my parents up and moved into my basement.. now I’m tied here.
Not everyone moving out of California is happy to do so. I’ve heard from several people who only moved because their company was moving (eg Toyota to Austin, TX). They say they got a much nicer home, but wish they’d stayed in beautiful California with its great weather, modern culture and open-minded views. There are some very good reasons why real estate in Los Angeles is pricey. People really do prefer living here.
Alas the jobs to support the life just aren’t here anymore and it’s becoming a city of migrant renters or wealthy heirs.
“I’ve heard from several people who only moved because their company was moving (eg Toyota to Austin, TX) They say they got a much nicer home, but wish they’d stayed in beautiful California with its great weather”
You’ve heard of several people that moved to Austin TX to work for Toyota and wish they hadn’t left California? Interesting. Toyota is relocating to Plano, TX, not Austin TX. Also seems the construction of the Toyota campus won’t be completed until late 2016; the bulk of employee transfers occur in late 2016/2017.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/04/28/autos/toyota-moves-headquarters/index.html
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-toyota-move-20140429-story.html
iLies
@iGabby, admit it, you are a real estate shill.
Portions of California are beautiful, i.e. Sierra Nevada, San Diego, Tahoe, Mt Shasta, Santa Barbara, however Los Angeles County and the Inland Empire are two certifiable armpits of humanity.
When non-Californian friends and family visit me, they are amazed at what a garbage dump the Los Angeles area is. They expect “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous”. What they see instead is “Sanford and Son”.
@ernst So true about LA and OC being armpits, but as a lifelong resident of LA, I say:
“I just can’t quit you” (Los Angeles, that is:)
I could see myself retiring to Santa Barbara, or Ojai, perhaps Ventura along the beach as well. Ventura County is much more interesting to me than OC.
Hey QE,
I’ve lived in Ventura County for the last 30 or so years and still like a lot of the area (though the part I currently live in, Thousand Oaks, now bores me to death).
I’ve spent a lot of time in Santa Barbara, and while physically beautiful, the snob factor gets pretty insufferable at times. I really do prefer Ventura. Yes it has its ghetto-ish areas, but it also seems a lot more unpretentious and diverse – and it’s one of the few places a semi-mortal can still afford a place with a view of the ocean in this state. I guess you could include Oxnard/Hueneme in that statement too, but other than the Harbor and the areas right along the beach, the lowlife/gang element there is just a bit too oppressive for me.
Ojai is also pretty and I do enjoy it in the wintertime, but it can just be an oven in the summer and fall (a fate Ventura and Santa Barbara handily avoid).
The downside of all of this is the commute to LA if you’re still tied to a job there. Even from the eastern edge of the county where I live it’s pretty godawful. The last 5 years of commuting on the 405 have finished me. I’m done.
Two Baby Boomers migrated out of California for Texas 3 years ago. Now saving money on housing, food, fuel, utilities, state income tax, and more. Results, we have a savings account for the first time in 30 years now that we are no longer paying for those living on the dole. By the way there is no need to raise the minimum wage here as most folks are paid an honest wage for an honest days work. Housing market is booming but mostly from those migrating from Houston and Dallas and colder climates not California from what I see working for a large multi state builder. Gone are the days of the all cash California buyers. They either went elsewhere or are banking the dough and living debt free, like me.
I am quite surprised that the outflow isn’t much greater. I would think there are a whole lot of Boomers with a lot of equity, many with 7 figures sitting tied up in that real estate. I know people get mesmerized by California, but I got to believe many of those people would have petty nice ‘golden years’ if they sold and moved out-of-state. Statistically, I would imagine that there are far more people who have most of their assets tied up in those expensive homes, and considerable fewer, who have a couple of million in the bank and can just live out the rest of their lives in those expensive homes.
@JN wrote: “I am quite surprised that the outflow isn’t much greater…”
That’s because there are many people in SoCal who believe their crap shack is going to go up in price 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% a year, every year, forever!!!!! So they are not selling.
I know a bunch of people over the age of 70 who planned on selling their crap shacks in Culver City, Palms, Mar Vista, Westchester in 2005 to 2007 as soon as the prices cleared $2 Million. That never happened. These people still believe it’s a matter of when, not if, their 1000 square foot crap shack lotto ticket hits $2 Million. Some of these people are pushing 80 years old, in wheel chairs, or motorized carts, and hooked up to oxygen tanks.
This is part of the reason why inventory remains abnormally low.
DEUTSCHE BANK: We examined 200 years of data and concluded stocks, bonds, and housing are at ‘peak valuation’
http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-stocks-bonds-housing-near-peak-valuation-2015-9
I don’t know where you got your info on Portland, but it doesn’t reflect my experience.
We closed on a house close in Portland earlier this year after checking out the city and specific neighborhoods for a year. Yes, we overbid on a home we love (11 total bidders) in a neighborhood we love with super nice neighbors who are mostly natives. Why did we overbid? Among other reasons, because our time is more valuable than dealing with losing out with multiple tries stretched over months, low interest rates, etc. More reasons below.
Nobody really cares if you’re from CA as long as you are respectful of the lifestyle/culture. That’s a universal feeling. Why would you move to a place to don’t like/respect enough to integrate? When we travel abroad, we respect the culture on every level.
Moving on to the sticker thing. Didn’t see one. There are many people moving from other states too, not just CA. What the locals don’t like are contractors and/or spec builders that scrape a perfectly good home on a street with homes with architectural character. Can’t say I blame them.
Finally, we don’t and didn’t own RE in CA, priced out forever. No big deal, love Portland. However, jobs here in Bay Area are solid and so we will put in a couple more years (tentatively) here before making the move. Based on what I’ve experienced in the Bay Area and as a CA native, and what I’ve learned and experienced in Portland, I don’t think the Portland bubble (if that’s what you want to call it) will end for some time. Why? Because we are not alone in our circumstances. As mentioned, people are coming in from all different parts of the country. Many contacted us wanting to rent our home which we did rent to a non-native. Tech jobs are growing which will foster more companies moving/growing there. CA has peaked and now on the down swing.
For those of you wanting some hard numbers, our rent was recently raised $700 per month (we are still below market, if you can believe it!). Between house rent and a lease for my business, it costs roughly $4,500 a month to wake up. That’s before anything; insurance, taxes, gas, food, etc. Our cost in Portland with hugely upgraded home/lifestyle ~ $1,700 – Bye CA
Portland, and Oregon in general, have always been much more susceptible to the boom/bust economy cycle than CA.
Anyone remember when it seemed like all of SoCal was moving to Bend, OR for the “high desert extreme sports outdoor lifestyle” during Housing Bubble CA-Out-Migration v 1.0? Might be worth some research there if you really “don’t think the Portland bubble will end for some time” …
“Nobody really cares if you’re from CA as long as you are respectful of the lifestyle/culture.” << Lol.
It sounds like you're still living and working in the Bay Area. Once you start actually living your day to day in Portland, you'll find out what the locals really think of CA natives. I'm sure they'll love the story of how you over and outbid 11 other bidders in a neighborhood "who are mostly natives" …
You're going to be a real hit at those neighborhood parties!
And have fun getting to know those Oregon cops. They’ll follow your CA plates like butter on rice until your 60-day waiting period is over and your shiny new Oregon license plates show up in the mail.
How do I know all this?
Firsthand experience.
There’s a reason so many Ex-Californians end up saying “Bye OR” after a few months of gray rainy winters.
A final word of advice… drop the cocky attitude until you’ve actually experienced life in the state you’ve so clearly idealized. A lot of Californians find out the grass is only greener in OR because it rains.
I met a couple in Carmel who’d moved to Oregon. The man was crowing about how much house he got compared to California — how much land. When he went to the bathroom his wife leaned over to my wife and said she thought about killing herself every day — particularly in the winter. I felt the same way after my 5th winter there. Come back and post after your 5th dreary, never ending, constantly raining winter with overly medicated people. Ever wonder why everyone is so vacant and nice? Portland is the most medicated city in America and has the highest suicide rate. Do try to be aware of your emotional state and that of your family too. I’m not kidding. Depression slips into a person with out a lot of bells and whistles. I am glad to be back in LA — smaller house, LA troubles and all. Different mind set here. I had troubles making friends because most of the men up there are hipsters or men who were part of the lumber and shipping industries and inculcated to someone giving them a job. Defeated men and people with useless degrees. People come to LA because places like Portland are too small for them. Small words. Small ideas. And peer pressure to stay small. I kept hearing from people up there that I wasn’t “Portland enough†or that I wasn’t a “Portlander†because I didn’t fit into the archetype. “The Peoples Republic of Portlandâ€, right? You see the bumper stickers all over. Or “Capitalism — the predatory phase of mans evolution.†Oh it was a bitch being a small business person up there with propaganda like that flying around up there.
That was the case for me, living in Seattle. I started out perky but by year 3-4 I was complaining about the winter, and by year 5 I was outright dreading its arrival before the summer was out. Moved out of the state after 7 years of full time residence.
Will never forget, skiing in Colorado few years ago, group from Portland remarking how great it was to see the sun again after 57 straight days of rain. There’s a reason only 10 mil live in Oregon.
“Why did we overbid?”
Because desperate not to miss out.
The idea of “love” for a place that someone hasn’t truly experienced living in is manic.
“Nobody really cares if you’re from CA as long as you are respectful of the lifestyle/culture. ”
HAHA. Spoken like a true Californian with zero experience living in Oregon. Let’s see what you think of your native Portlandian neighbors once you’re actually living amongst them.
“….we respect the culture on every level”…. By outbidding 11 other bidders in an area with “super nice neighbors who are mostly natives” …. ????
Sounds like you’re really “respecting” that local Oregon culture.
Based on your comments on this blog, you’re going to have one helluva ride living in the OR. Enjoy those fresh local organic urban chicken eggs as they pelt your garage door.
Last time I checked, there’s no law Californian’s can not buy in OR. So all you OR people complaining and bitching about us coming, too bad. We have dealt with this for years. If you don’t like getting out bid, then make more money. Stop bitching and complaining. I will buy in OR, you’re welcome to come visit. You can always move yourself to Idaho.
Where’d this blog get its information on Portland?
Seriously?
It’s called research… firsthand experience… and plain ol common knowledge.
Maybe you should’ve tried some before you put down that ridiculous overbid. Sounds like someone is headed for some major lifestyle regrets.
For every 10 honest, hard-working and respectful Californians that relocate to Oregon, there’s at least one of this guy.
Congratulations, “Bye CA” for personifying the exact reasons why Oregonians hate California.
Let’s hope for your sake that you’re just a troll.
Urban dictionary:””Porkland” refers to the fact that many women in Portland are fugly, frumpish, and frequently overweight. Hence, “Porkland – the Other White Meat” as often heard.” Give me the good looking bodies on Newport Beach and Fashion Island over the suicide weather of Porkland.
they say republican women are hot and democrat women are not. palin and feinstein come to mind
Palin hot? Her voice can peel paint and she is stupid as shit.
Carlos, when you’ve got nothing, resort to the “ugly women” meme.
Hey Carlos, Everyone’s got different taste I guess, but I didn’t see too many supermodels around the last time I cruised the ‘nard. Just sayin.
Passing through Payson, about 70 miles northeast of Phoenix, on Friday afternoon. Luckily heading south, as all of Phoenix had simultaneously decamped for Payson. Both lanes on the highway into town (AZ 87) backed up 50 cars at the casino light. Maybe not the 405 at rush hour, but for the area, incredible traffic. California plates much in evidence …
Anedotal comments and input that may have some value from an older guy.
Retired in 2010 and left san diego, had been back for last 15 years of career. We motorhomed for 3 years and finally bought small summer house in Eugene, Or. (grandkids). We have seen same effects here, prices have keep going up up up in better neighborhoods closer in. Talk I hear is complaints of many that prices have become just too high, especially for starter houses as wage level is fairly low here. The fairly pricy stuff > 500k sits a very long time. The <250 needs so much work and remodeling to be depressing. There is now alot of new housing for student deluxe stuff fit for kings 700 a month for a bedroom up to 1500 mo. Without govt loans for students who could afford such luxury. But virtually no construction of affordable housing for workers or other lower paid citizens, so disparity is really apparent. As a aside I wonder what will happen when a student who has lived in a student residence ( essentially a very up scale condo with all amenities ), leaves university and faces real world of being a barista with limited income and has to down grade their living situation by a very large degree
Our winter home / lot for motor home is in Palm Desert / La Quinta, Ca. area and we are getting out of motorhoming and looked for house in that area. Prices have become stupidly insane for a retirement, 2nd house area, so we are looking at St George, Ut. where you can get a brand new house, more sq ft for about half the price, in retirement community with ammendities, so again bye bye Calif.
We still have rental property in San Diego and visit, rents have become insane (yes good for us but unfortunately bad for all the kids starting out). 1600 to 1700 for a 2 bed 1 ba Huffman in North Park and that is under market. One late 20s couple, former tenant, just bought in Talmadge 545k for 1050 sq ft 1958 rancher, and that area while small but better is on the edge of little Vietnam with crime, gangs and so forth. For any with a old knowdelge of SD you will know quality of life there has really declined over last decade or so. Traffic, crime, congestion, you name it; trying to find a parking space at the beach on a sat sun is like winning the lottery
Finally for all those touting Portland as place to go, lived (35 yrs), in that area (Vancouver), worked Portland, and quality of life there has also declined so badly it doesn't even come up on radar screen as a place to even consider. Traffic is as bad as Seattle, LA. Normal working hours figure 1.5 to 2 hours to transit 40 miles from Wilsonville to the interstate bridge. Yes still some funky hoods and eateries and bars, so forth, but looked at in the big picture of jobs, wages, prices, value, schools, its time was yesterday. But then again maybe that is true of most cities on west coast. Only say glad we are retired. Best to all.
Ha, I relocated from CA in 1992 to CO. Graduated from college, moved to the Bay Area for work, and realized I was hopelessly priced out from being a homeowner. Moved to Boulder, CO, and have continuously owned real estate since. Unfortunately Boulder is crazy expensive now too: I bought my first house for $225K, now worth >$800K. Not sure Boulder/Denver is such a great place to relocate anymore!
When the price of a gallon of milk doubles in your bucolic little village you have 2 choices. You can blame all the ” out of towners ” for sweeping in to buy all your milk or you can look at the merchants and wonder why they didn’t stock up on milk. I think the latter makes more sense.
When government, in their infinite (lack of) wisdom decides they need more building taxes and more controls on permits and access to utilities the very rational businessmen putting up houses take a pass. The reduced inventory with the same number of buyers pushes up prices. Then the political class clamorous for more controls on the greedy builders. The builders will leave writing off any business opportunities. Here’s a test: build 5000 new houses in Portland and take a guess at what will happen to the prices of the existing stock. Another test: you’re thinking of buying a new TV and that 65 inch looks impressive. The pols decide to add an additional 25% “luxury tax” to TVs over 60 inches. Do you think you might scale back? Somehow this simple logic fails when populist issues and more taxing opportunities come together in a political mind (D or R or whatever).
The responses to my post crack me up. What assumptions you make. Everyone’s desires and needs differ and so I would expect differing opinions. That’s what makes the world go round, but why the hate?
Re weather: Many comments here remind me of conversations I’ve had about Kauai. They all say north shore is too rainy, stay in the south and I’m always grateful they do stay in the south b/c north shore is paradise. Love the fact that Portland reputation is that it rains all the time, should keep some people away.
Re Neighbors/culture: I met more neighbors in the 2 months in Portland this summer than anywhere in 50years of living in CA. They dropped off fresh baked bread, greens from their gardens, flowers, had us over for a pool party (very warm this summer). Maybe you guys just give off bad vibes. In fact my next door neighbor basically admitted he wanted to hate us, but gave us a hug when we finally did have to leave.
Re cops: Had CA plates, no issues.
Some people see opportunity and seize it, others pontificate on blogs and wish they could make a move. Seems there are a lot of angry people that follow this blog.
Ain’t nothin Oregon likes more than a Californian this entitled.
“Some people see opportunity and seize it, others pontificate on blogs and wish they could make a move. Seems there are a lot of angry people that follow this blog.”
Does the formula for seizing opportunity include pontificating rationalizations of personal decision making on a blog with a lot of angry followers?
I read your first post. It didn’t sound like gloating at all. But this blog is openly hostile to others who have decided to walk around the brick wall instead of incessantly bashing your head up against it along side them. I’m happy for anybody who finds a more financially viable opportunity, and I’m happy for anybody who decides to buy in SoCal so long as they know the inherit risks. This party can’t and won’t last forever, but the pertinent question to ask is how will it end
In the mid 1980’s I was visiting the Los Angeles area. There was a very popular bumper sticker on a lot of the local cars at the time. It read, ” Welcome to California, now leave”. I wonder how many of the people that had those on there car have since hightailed it out of California.
Wall Street wants to be your landlord, Portland:
http://invw.org/2015/09/08/wall-street-moves-in-on-portland-rental-homes/
It’s funny. Now that the prices have peaked (reaching the max amount one can borrow on an FHA loan seems to be pivotal in a peak) you can see banks trying to control the prices with a flood of foreclosures. In Sacramento last month, I saw a few hundred listed on Zillow. After the 15th of this month, we started seeing more and today, there are at least 1600 foreclosures and preforeclosures with an inventory of about 2600 homes on the market for sale. Once these hit the full foreclosure, I wonder if the prices in the market will drop, especially since we are seeing a flood of new home building (at peak prices, some already in foreclosure!) These are not shadow inventory (or if they are, they have been quietly kept under the radar) because most homes when into default in the spring of this year or December 15th of last year at the earliest. I find this to be too coincidental.
I am sitting tight and waiting for the prices to drop a little (as they have begun to do) before buying. Too much instability right now for my preferences.
Patience is the key to purchasing and investing. I’m seeing the same thing as I look around with price reductions. The top is near, 2016 will be telling. The world hasn’t seen this disinflation since the 50’s…housing will come back down…it always does….
Curious about Sac as I was considering moving there or near there anyways. Prices seem to be out of control for the wage/employment situation. What gives? Looked at some real estate listings and houses are just sitting for months and months, but no price drops. Homes not quite at LA levels but not too far below either.
This oppressive heat wave sure fits the definition of PERFECT WEATHER!
This video sums up what it’s like to look for a house in California:
California Starter Home HGTV
The influx of California money is very noticeable in Bozeman, Montana. Real estate reports say the ave. home is 260k… I guess this is a trailer because a halfway decent house in more like 450k. Incomes (and this is a college town with a large regional hospital) in no way match this price. Prices are rising very fast and a month doesn’t pass without an article in Sunset or some lifestyle magazine exhorting the amazing attributes of Bozeman. It’s a great place if you like 7 months of winter- and I mean winter (10 below, snow from Oct to May), and a land of white people who missed the over population memo.
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