It is now official that the United States has turned into a renter’s paradise. Think that is hyperbole? Fifty-two of the 100 largest cities in the U.S. are now majority renter in terms of household composition. And there is no clear pattern here. You have places with incredibly affordable housing like Detroit tipping over into the renter majority category at the same time places like affluent Irvine have tipped over as well. Bottom line, more renter households are forming at a time when real estate values are once again peaking. And where did all of these renter households come from? Well between 2007 and 2016 nearly 7.8 million people lost their homes to foreclosure. Of course this flies in the face of the #YoLo real estate movement and the mantra of “always be buying†real estate because heck, even our current president is a real estate mogul, therefore buy. People have massively short-term memories when it comes to financial spankings.
The Bay Area tech driven frenzy continues to march forward with no stopping in sight. If you thought $1 million was too much for a crap shack then $1.3 million is going to be out of your price range. The tech gentrification is getting more aggressive and is pricing out people at an astonishing pace. We’ve noted the out migration of native Californians to other states is much larger than people suspect. Foreign money and high income households are the power players in these niche markets. This is simply a fact but also is tied to the bull market that has now entered into its eight year. There are now signs that we are reaching a plateau but this system only understands two states: boom and bust. There is nothing calm about the way our real estate system is now structured. It is about fast gains or big losses. All or nothing. You are either riding the big wave or crashing in fantastic fashion. People forget cycles and have the long-term memory of a gnat when it comes to these things. The Bay Area continues to drink from the cup of housing mania.
California is a high cost of living state. That goes without saying. Yet the level of affordability oscillates up and down with the whims of the bubble economy. As of today the state faces a rental Armageddon trend where many families simply cannot afford to purchase a gorgeous, sturdy, and well-designed home (just kidding, most can’t buy a 700 square foot funky looking crap shack). Whenever people even hint at the expensive nature of California the yelling begins with “then move out!†or “buying always makes sense!†which seems interesting since the housing market really got out of control in many metro areas starting in the late 1990s as Wall Street injected its casino antics into the industry. And many of those that protest the loudest are usually Taco Tuesday baby boomers living in granite countertop paradise that wouldn’t have a chance affording their home today if they had to pay current prices. But in reality, many are moving out. From 2000 to 2015 more people left California than moved in from other states. The biggest destination is Texas.
Rental Armageddon hits the ballot boxes in March for Angelinos. One measure that hits particularly close to home is Measure S, dubbed the slow growth measure and sought out to curb large scale development. Now as you are aware and we’ve noted before, Los Angeles County is now a renting majority county. Most of the people that live in the area and haven’t purchased are priced out in terms of owning a home. So it should come as no shock to Taco Tuesday baby boomers who bought “back in the day†that large scale development is going to be the future even if it interferes with them getting lit mid-afternoon. Measure S lost because most people rent and don’t give a crap about your crap shack in Culver City or any other West L.A. hood. In other words, L.A is going to get even more crowded and sardine packed.
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