Current housing policy has been a major windfall for large institutions and investors. Banks enjoyed a continuous stream of good years as rates slowly dragged down and people became serial refinancers. Good way for banks to earn fees courtesy of the Fed’s QE maneuvering. However the results have been negative for the large number of working and middle class Americans. Many of you have encountered investors bidding prices up on properties here in your own backyard but this trend is nationwide. In some areas the bidding has been more aggressive (i.e., San Francisco) but overall, the nation has seen a big jump in home values. However new data continues to highlight how this current policy is really benefitting a small group of Americans. While rental vacancy rates reach decade lows, homeownership rates are also reaching multi-decade lows. Not hard to do when a large portion of the market is coming from the investor crowd.
There are now signs that the unrelenting housing price boom is slowing down. Pending home sales faced their largest monthly drop since the home-buyer tax credit expired back in 2010. If you notice a pattern, any time the government even remotely hints at pulling back the housing market suddenly reverses. The Fed’s hint of a taper ending sent mortgage rates soaring. Of course the taper never materialized and the Fed even became more aggressive in QE. The government shutdown did impact housing from data we are seeing. Existing homes sales pulled out a weak performance and the drop in pending sales, a leading indicator are showing signs of a slowing housing market. In this boom and bust market with no middle ground, are we now to expect a “normal†healthy market after this recent boom?
There is a heavy demand from abroad for US real estate. China as you know is now solidly the second largest economy in the world and with it is wielding heavy economic power. Wealthy families are growing and with it, the ability to purchase investments and assets all around the world. In California target locations like Los Angeles and San Francisco bring in dramatic levels of dollars from abroad. The California housing market has been on a massive run-up in the last couple of years. As we’ve discussed, a large part of this has been driven by domestic investors but how much of this is being driven from those abroad? In particular how much money is flowing in from China into US real estate? It is interesting to note that Chinese property investors are targeting select coastal regions whereas some domestic hedge funds have gone after properties in Arizona and Nevada. It is hard to ignore the money flowing in from abroad.
Americans for the most part are bad at saving money. In fact, the entire credit boom and bust was largely fueled by people and banks living way beyond their means. Even after the recent boom in the stock market and housing market, many Americans are not in a better financial position. The problem with housing is that this is like having golden handcuffs.  You will likely only unlock the wealth when you sell it. As we have discussed many are simply reluctant to sell. So in essence, the wealth is locked away. To sell a home also costs money and real estate for the most part is illiquid. And since the recession ended a large portion of home purchases have gone to investors. Never in the history of the US have we seen so many large institutions dive into the housing market in aspiration of being a landlord. Recent surveys show that many Americans plan on working until they end up in their grave. But what about the boom in housing? Unfortunately many are locked in a granite countertop laden sarcophagus.
Subscribe to feed
