San Francisco living in containers and NorCal tents: The housing mania is causing people to pay high prices for what amounts to camping.
I wanted to continue in the vein of high housing costs in Northern California because the mania is so out of control. People are funny creatures. Everyone wants a piece of their own cave and some are willing to pay every penny of disposable income to live in a certain zip code. That is until, the mania fades out. I saw a lot of this during the first tech boom in the late 1990s. We are in deep and frothy territory here and valuations are out of control for many tech firms. Bay Area housing is largely driven by the stock market and VC money flowing into start-ups for those hard to find unicorns. Like the old school gold rush, those running side hustles seem to be doing well catering to this new tech mania. Many readers sent over an article about an enterprising person that has a warehouse full of shipping containers. What is he shipping? Your hopes and dreams for affordable housing in San Francisco.
The Bay Area goes full mania
Here in SoCal, we are home to the most expensive real estate relative to household incomes. We out do San Francisco and New York because overall, they earn more there. This is why recent sales are going largely to big money from abroad and big time investors. The sales that go to regular households are folks stretching every inch of their budget to buy a crap shack. But a SoCal crap shack might look like Taj Mahal compared to what is going on in the Bay Area:
“(Bloomberg) The Wharton School graduate’s 160-square-foot box has a camp stove and a shower made of old boat hulls. It’s one of 11 miniature residences inside a warehouse he leases across the Bay Bridge from the city, where his tenants share communal toilets and a sense of adventure. Legal? No, but he’s eluded code enforcers who rousted what he calls cargotopia from two other sites. If all goes according to plan, he’ll get a startup out of his response to the most expensive U.S. housing market.â€
Why in the world would people pay absurd prices to what amounts to camping?
“That’s a towering goal where costs are so high people of average means get inventive or get out. The median rent in June jumped 16 percent from a year earlier in San Francisco to $4,272 and climbed 15 percent to $3,237 in the metro area, Zillow Group Inc. reported Thursday. The median sales price is $1.14 million in the city and $660,000 areawide.â€
This is sardine living taken up to the next level. With the median rent hitting $4,272 per month, people are getting creative. Living out of a shipping container is definitely creative. I find it poetically tragic that these shipping containers were/are largely used to ship products from China (a country that is now buying up a ton of the available real estate in California and has also chipped away at US manufacturing).
Living in shipping containers isn’t the only housing “hack†that is happening in Northern California:
“The market is so crazy it’s spawned innovations that keep inspectors up at night. Garages are converted to studios, offices to lofts, living rooms to rentable units, many without permits. As many as 60,000 San Franciscans live in illegal housing, according to the Department of Building Inspection.”
This nonsense is also happening here with your Taco Tuesday baby boomers renting out rooms in Santa Monica and Culver City. But leave it to the Bay Area to get wickedly creative:
“In Mountain View, home to Google Inc. and LinkedIn Corp., John Potter advertised a backyard tent on AirBnB for $900 a month, spurring a dozen copycats. He got a cease-and-desist order because the tent was an unlicensed structure, but is undeterred. “My next thing is a tree house,†said Potter, 22, who runs an animal photography studio and avoids the housing-price problem by living with his parents.â€
The next million dollar zip code in the Bay Area
Bwahahaha! We’ve talked about the 2.3 million adult children living back home with parents because they are too broke to rent. Now you can generate extra income by having tenants “camp†out in your backyard or live in a freaking tree house. By the way, where do they go to the restroom? Your crap shack of course. Yes sir! No mania here. Maybe I’ll list my trash bin on AirBnB and go for the Oscar the Grouch living arrangement. Just be careful on Monday as to not get taken away by Waste Management.
And this is a neighborhood where you want to plant roots? Neighbors turning their homes into make-shift camp grounds or hotels? Yeah, sounds like an awesome plan. Maybe a shipping container makes more sense. And you wonder why California residents are leaving the state in droves.
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87 Responses to “San Francisco living in containers and NorCal tents: The housing mania is causing people to pay high prices for what amounts to camping.”
http://mhanson.com/archives/1831
”
“Second / Vacation†home demand has surged more than any other housing segment over the past three years. The overwhelming market opinion is that aging, equity-market affluent baby-boomers are all rushing in at the same time to buy their dream “vacation†home. But, this is misguided, as the data, herein, reveal the truth; there is no indication true “2nd/vacation†home demand is surging at all.
In fact, the data fully supports my thesis that this housing market is spun out of control from rampant speculation, process incompetence, relationship-driven dissonance, and outright fraud, or an exact repeat of 2005 to 2007.
”
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/08042015_housing_market_health.asp
“Redfin noted that June’s Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors also took a dive, falling 1.8 percent after five straight months of increases, meaning fewer home sales in the pipeline. While it’s routine for sales to slow this time of year, Redfin says, the steep decline caught economists off guard.”
Keep dreaming folks. For every article/set of data you find to justify why housing is going to tank and the market is already showing the signs. There’s another set of data that that shows it’s booming. Like this one for instance: http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2015/07/31/real-estate-goes-boom-home-sales-prices-are-up-around-southland/
You have missed the boat in any and all of the nicer areas. Homes have been bought by people with money. No more subprime B.S. The leverage is not there like it was after the 2008 crash. These people aren’t going to be forced to sell and you will pay their price or they will hold forever.
Bert, your post made me laugh and reminded me of what people were saying during the last bubble….Lets see if we hear from you once this bubble bursts…..I doubt it. We know about the people who keep saying “this time its different”….who is dreaming here? 😉
If you’re so confident CBS2 has a crystal ball that negates analysis from Mark Hanson, Redfin and NAR, why do you bother trolling this site?
I will continue to dream, because the current reality is unsustainable. Sorry but do you not remember 1987, 2000, and 2008. I love when people say there is no way it could ever crash. Why? I seems to happen realtivley often if you look back.
Not surprisingly, another fallacious reference to the relative absence of subprime loans in a vain attempt to justify the bubble in RE prices. Never mind that those “cash” RE purchases are non-mortgage loans. Never mind that Chinese buyers also like to leverage their assets on the imploding Shangai stock exchange.
This time, like the hundreds of times before, is really truly different.
Buy now or be priced out forever (for the second time in less than in a decade).
American cities are becoming gentrified in a way that it could not 6 years ago.
Hahahaha how old are you? 16?
The market may tank, it may not. However, people always need to buy and sell. Just because someone has money invested in the house doesn’t mean s/he won’t sell. In the event of a price collapse of say, 20 percent, maybe an owner (especially foreign and other skittish owners) would be afraid of further collapse. -20% is better than -30% or -40%, correct? I just don’t see that your rationale is sufficiently well-founded in reason or logic to assert that an owner with skin in the game will not sell at less than optimal prices.
Btw, no shit about missing the boat (this time around). Every current prospective buyer knows that already, so why bother even stating such? Seems like a waste of your time to even bother typing that.
TheBert –
There’s a difference between analyzing information to better understand potential path and wishing for an outcome.
What you’re really saying is “For every three data-driven forward looking analysis you provide, I’ll give you one example of a sloppy TV news puff piece based on shallow perception of two statistics backed-up by two anecdotes.”
If you have a crystal ball which so accurately foretells the future on boat movements, one has to wonder why you’d waste any time visiting this blog, much less responding to those of us without your psychic abilities.
Yes and no! To the wealthy Chinese, U.S. real estate is seen as a safe place to park money, and they may be under no pressure to sell except for a much higher price. But to many American’s, especially those that have lived in those homes for a long time, their home is a significant chuck of their net worth, and many likely will have to sell to sustain their retirement. And to the young software programmer making oodles of money, a $1 million may not seem like much either, until their job is replaced or the economy turns south again. I hired several desperate IT folks after the dot.com bust! It is all relative. If you believe statistics, there are only roughly 10 million millionaire households in the U.S. which excludes primary residences. There are significantly less, roughly 1.3 million households with $5 million or more in assets. So, roughly 7.5% of households are millionaires, meaning to me, that the remaining 92.5% who own, will have to sell at some point hoping to get that equity to live on, or will be eating dog food. And, those millionaires who don’t more than $5 million, likely they will sell for financial reasons … that extra cash will assure a nice retirement, just not in the Bay area or So. Cal.
When the sycophants on this blog get slapped in the face with reality, they all swarm and attack the messenger of that reality: the posters that incessantly, arrogantly, and pathetically cry for a 2007 crash are merely projecting their disappointment and frustration over missing the boat. It’s one thing to talk about the absurdity of the market, and how that adversely affects home ownership affordability and thus home ownership rates, and in turn how all of this with FED QE is bad for the economy and American families, it’s another to mindlessly clamor for a 2007 crash when the circumstances are completely different. Like Blert said, it’s a PIPE dream. And if these posters were a little bit more humble when faced with a different perspective (i.e. reality) it would be all good and fun, but these guys are so insecure about missing the boat that they attack any messenger of reality like savages.
@FresnoResident: Big talk about “losers” when you live in the armpit of California.
@FresnoResident:
I’m not really offended or insecure as you seem to imply someone in my position might be. In fact, I (and I’m assuming many others) am perfectly positioned to buy at the current prices. I’m just not stupid enough to do so, and am simply standing by waiting for the next bubble pop. Maybe prices won’t collapse as much as last time around, but even a 20 percent adjustment would be pretty substantial for my price bracket ($600k to $800k).
Just as you feel people are fools for waiting around for a price adjustment, I might assert that you sound like all of the other naysayers in 2006, who said that was the new normal. Maybe the circumstances are different this time, but the bubble can (and probably will) pop just like last time, and the multiple times before that.
Fresno –
If one were secure enough in their convictions as to the “reality” regarding missed boats, he or she would have no need to visit a contrarian outlet such as this one, much less dish out personal condescension in the comments thread.
@Hotel California.
Indeed. FresnoResident dost protest too much. His words betray his insecurities on a personal level.
TheBert and Fresno – no one here is praying for a crash. We simply think a correction is inevitable. Characterizing us all as being bitter for “missing the boat” is also dead wrong – there are some smart people here who also happen to be homeowners. I stayed out of the market at the last peak, bought in the trough that followed. I fully expect my property value to drop at least 20% in the next few years, and I’m fine with that. That’s when it will be smart to buy additional property, and that’s what I’ll be doing.
This isn’t rocket science. The market rises and the market falls. It always has, always will. The ride up frequently take longer than the ride down, but ten years is typical. Longer than some peoples’ memory, apparently.
Prince –
It’s quite fundamental. Putting the fringe tank/end of times prognosticating aside – we visit this blog to digest information and exchange thoughts around ideas that the real estate marketplace in SoCal is being perverted. I don’t think most of us are claiming confidence in what’s going to happen, which is the point, we’re questioning confidence in the current status quo. There always seems to be a small cohort of those that make it their mission to deride and scold us with the suggestion that any skepticism is being out of line with “reality.”
They tend to use various labels and tactics of personal derision which do nothing to present cogently dispelling arguments. On the off-chance that they do present something of use, it’s normally built upon shallow platitudes based on things such as climate preference or abstract notions of new normals.
Here’s a fair question which suggests even more-so that we are indeed onto something — if those of us who dare question the “reality” are living in such extreme denial and unreality, then why are they here? Changing the perceptions of people who are living in a pipe dream doesn’t change reality. Reality takes care of itself and doesn’t require pundits nor soldiers. Perhaps the reality isn’t what they claim it is.
The best guess I can come up with is that at best, their lack of confidence too brings them here in the first place and at worst, they’re simply trolling assholes with nothing else better to do. If it is the latter, too bad they don’t stick to discussions about the realities of Kim Kardashian’s latest ass malfunction or whatever, because what we’re discussing here actually has serious implications for our lives and families.
@Hotel California
Appreciate your commentary based on logic and historical precedence. Far more constructive than the simplistic conclusion that “this time is different” is.
RIGHT YOU ARE! I have a home in Western Oregon in a pretty little valley by a stream that would make a great Summer vacation home. I put it up for sale this Spring for a price I thought was high but fair (less than $260 K for ~2 acres & 1900 sq ft). I had a tenant leave for another state to find work. I haven’t gotten any offers. I’ve lowered the price but I’m not going to lower it again. We are getting rental inquiries, and I’ll rent it if it doesn’t sell by Labor Day weekend. I wish I had sold it when my Mother died in 2009 but I was too sentimental. I’ve done some fix-up and hopefully I can get enough rent to pay my expenses on it.
I am sure there are examples of living spaces created unbeknownst to the land/homeowner.
Beware: Those sounds you hear in your attic may not just be mice.
I don’t know, you might be a little late to the whole dumpster as castle idea:
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/brooklyn/brooklyn-dumpster-home-sweet-home-article-1.1422854
I predicted the storage container/home idea about eight years ago. But long before that, back in the 80’s, to save money on rent I slept in a truck with a camper shell, and hung out daylight hours at the gym. Local governments really need to start using existing parking lots, add some outhouses, water, and allow people to live there, in tiny houses mounted to a truckbed. Or not.
back in the 90’s I lived in WLA and was a member of the gym on South Bundy Drive, between Wilshire and Olympic (can’t remember the name of the gym). I remember one day walking out to my car and noticing lots of taxi cabs in the parking lot. I mentioned to a passerby that I didnt know taxi drivers were so into working out at the gym… the passerby said to me: they are not all working out, some have a gym membership to use for showering but live in their cars.
Bally Total Fitness! I went there for a while too. What a shithole
It’s not a bad idea if you have the discipline. I know If I was a 50K type earner in LA proper, I’d lease a small SUV, join a 24 Hour Fitness, stay at the office as late as possible, and kick it at the beach on weekends. Put the rent you’d pay (say minimum $1000 a month with a roommate, possibly more) aside until you’re ready to leave the city and buy a place in the IE with 50% down. One could easily have 60-80K in the bank after 4 years Fuck the rentiers. 🙂
Back in the ’80s at snobby Bay Area University I got kicked out of my rental house and, even back then, the pickings were slim. I crashed in my research lab under a table for 6 weeks and then impersonated another student to sneak into on-campus housing for a semester. Good times.
Not all that different from a storage unit – so I guess this is a longstanding tradition up in the great Gray Area.
You’d entertain living in your car? Wouldn’t that make you feel a loser? (People who live in their cars ARE losers, and people who WILLINGLY live in their cars just to save some coin are DERANGED). Are your living standards so low?
Living in your car for 4 years so you can save money and have the pleasure of buying a house in the IE. WTF!!!! Why not just get the fuck out of Dodge and move someplace where you can live like a normal human being? Nobody is forcing anybody to live in a shipping container, tent or SUV. This is all self inflicted punishment!
Come to the Emerald Triangle and escape the rat race of The City and do your camping in style. You can come to Mendocino county. Other spots are Santa Cruz. Henry Cowell has good camping, go further inland at Big Basin and be amongst the old growth. Watch the fog on 17. Just one more toke, and then back to work.
The Great Recession of 2007 to 2012 was the worst recession since The Great Depression. Americans pulled back their spending and altered their behavior for the first time. A lot of us thought this was going to be a permanent mindset. Boy were we (including myself) wrong! Since 2012 the economy has come back and people have forgotten the pain and severity of The Great Recession. Now it’s spend every single dime and spend till you drop. All of this crazy speculation in housing would not occur if Joe and Jane Six Pack wised up. Who cares if you are spending 40% to 70% of your monthly take home income on housing. Housing only goes up and it is a wise investment.
The effects of economic stagnation is still being experienced by the majority of the population. Higher fixed costs against weak job, benefits, and wage growth for the bottom 99%.
Many of the “shop till you drop” crowd are those well connected enough to borrow heavily at very low interest rates. Or foreign buyers laundering their ill-gotten gains using American assets.
When you can live better on $20,000 a year in almost any other state, it is time to GTFO. What is the use of making $200K a year if half your take-home goes to the monthly nut for a house that is unfit for human habitation but costs a million-three, and a person on an average income is reduced to camping out in a metal box in a warehouse?
I am beginning to develop a “reaction formation” to the entire Tiny House movement, which I have approved of until now, as I love the ingenuity and design that goes into so many tiny homes. I love the use so many make of their space and it makes me appreciate my 1200 sq ft condo and want to make the most creative use of its space possible.
However, I am now beginning to see the whole Tiny House thing as part of the vicious trend towards ever more extreme economic bifurcation in our society, as more and more of the rewards accrue to a smaller percentage of the population, and more other people fall out of the middle class into shantytown poverty. I have never minded “inequality” as such.. .no one expects that a dishwasher or 7-11 clerk will earn the same sort of money that a surgeon or CEO makes. But when people with jobs requiring some education and skill are moving into shipping containers in a modern-day for-profit shantytown, while our elite (whose gains are not necessarily gotten by means honest or productive) are spending $100M to $500M on palaces that would make Louis XIV’s eyes glaze over, we are in trouble as a polity.
Very well said. I have the same thoughts myself.
Yes, this exactly.
Exactly. My grandfather purchased a brand new rancher in 1963 in Fremont for $20k with one income as a Plasterer (blue collar work). That same house, 50 years later without any improvements, is now “worth” $700k and would require two tech incomes plus $100k to modernize it. This is the change in quality of life we get to experience in the Bay Area.
Hi Laura!
Yes, I found Tiny Houses a refreshing approach to eschew the materialism of modern life and excessive stuff. But then I realized that I was fooling myself to believe that Tiny Houses are part of something voluntary. This is nothing but another coping mechanism thanks to the “winner take all” American capitalism of the last 30 years. And so now I see it as somewhat quaint but mostly sad.
And clearly we’d see more Californians do it if the land were affordable. Truth is that if you cannot buy the land you need friends that will lend/lease it to you (along with offer the electric and water hookups), like this daughter of a colleague of mine (who incidentally is an electrician and could do all the interior fit-out and wiring for her). http://cherilucasrowlands.com/tag/tiny-house/
Exactly!!! That’s why we finally left last year. It’s just not worth it.
Laura I agree with you. We have now entered a command and control phase in our economy. Notice how when the stock market, real estate, mortgaged backed securities, u.s. treasury bonds, etc. lose value, “something needs to be done”. The government/politicians are tinkering with the economy and choosing winners and losers. The “winners” then take their oodles of cash and support the politicians who in turn support the crony capitalists. This cycle won’t break but it will get stronger. Get used to it folks.
In Chicago valuations have reaches insane levels again. When comparing the value of the house to incomes. More and more of a person’s share of income is going to housing, healthcare and education. All industries in which the government has a heavy hand in.
100% agree, well said.
Laura –
I think many more people are GTFO of places like the bay area and SoCal than there are of those whom are extremely lowering their standards to join-in or stay. It’s just that the extremes people in the latter group are going to are what makes for headlines.
I admire these IT people in SF. Really helping everyone to improve our living standards.
Here’s another idea for cheaper housing. How about drain pipes? Some of those are so big you could fit a family of four in there. And they’re already fitted to the water and sewage !
Would a drain pipe condo be listed in the MLS description as “babbling creek right underneath your feet”?
How about old phone booths? They’re not being used anymore. Slap a half dozen together with one on top to sleep in and you’re good!
Nimesh,
I am not sure if your forgot your sarcasm tag but the great recession never ended. Tiny homes and living in containers, housing bubble 2.0 is boiling.
Mike I was being sarcastic about “housing only goes up in value”. Who knows what will happen? Will we go into a cycle of hyperinflation in which wages go up and feeds the inflation cycle? Or will we have another crash? Who know? I do know for sure that The Fed will once again clean up the mess; they will end up buying the so called “bad debt” that is owned by banks, car companies, etc. I mean they did it the first time and will do it again and again.
However, the funny thing is, I can’t just pass off my “bad debts” to the Federal Reserve.
So the US populace in Calif are resorting to shipping containers and tents while the Chinese and other Aseans are gobbling up the overpriced real estate. Maybe our penalty from the past… Stealing their gold under the guise of Japanese aggression in the 3os and depositing it in the Pacific islands to be reclaimed later by the Western Allies after the Japanese defeat…Hello England and the square mile and the International Banking intrigue
It is truly sad that now the US is allowing people to live in tiny cages. There used to be some dignity left when in came to where you live. Now here in affluent areas it is all about the money collected in taxes and fees and the gov’t could care less about who, or what goes on, as long as they are getting a piece of the action. Corruption is king here in the US, it is just more subversive than other countries. Southern California has become the melting pot for hot money worldwide because of it’s perceived safety and it’s good climate. We are the least dirty short in the laundry right now, but that can all change in a New York Minute.
http://Www.westsideremeltdown.blogspot.com
I don’t pity those who voluntarily choose this life. Opportunities elsewhere, but I suppose one doesn’t hang w/the “cool kids” there. A modern day Grapes of Wrath. Come to NorCal for a high pay tech job! People stream in from all over the world w/big dreams, wind up in tent/container, maybe eventually receiving nourishment from a modern day Rose of Sharon. A new slant to the lyrics “packed like lemmings into shiny metal boxes”. I wonder about electrical issues, candles, sanitation issues, etc. in some of these encampments, yikes.
I know many Millennials who grew up in SoCal. Smart, dynamic people w/much to offer. Almost all have left. Why? I hear repeatedly, CA full of “old” people who bought RE years ago, think its Paradise who are rapidly becoming outnumbered by a no/low income population. Increasing crime. Spend entire paycheck to exist. Don’t want to live w/parents/relatives. Don’t want to wake up one day 40 and broke. Too many people. Job market sucks. Expensive everything. $15/hr min wage will solve all (insert laugh track). Get ready for $10 burritos, wait in line ten minutes to pay, only one cashier.
We live in a selfish economy. Prices are out of line and people are desperate for housing. The only answer is to build more new housing units until the price stabilizes. But those who are equity rich don’t want new homes to drive existing prices down. And local governments make building new homes very difficult.
High home prices in some areas occur all over the world in niche areas. San Francisco is becoming a niche area and the prices will never be cheap again. The issue is going to make living in San Francisco even more expensive as they can’t hire a new generation of middle class workers cheaply.
As for the tents…it’s a joke. Are we going to raise families in tree houses and tents? This is a passing phase.
“But those who are equity rich don’t want new homes to drive existing prices down. And local governments make building new homes very difficult.”
Reminds me of several locals of a beach town I’m familiar with. Most age 50+, liberal, peace love surf types who haven’t held regular jobs in years; lots of RE bought decades ago and/or inherited. Very tight housing market. Recently a developer proposed tearing down an old business, and putting in luxury apartments. Locals upset, would destroy memories; one guy thought place shouldn’t be torn down because he worked there in high school. Development rejected. These same types happy when their tenants move because “now I can raise rents, it’s a tight housing market, tee hee!”.
i m certainly tempted to GTFO as soon as possible but jobs and family connections will make it slow going. Something to keep in mind as I’ve had friends move to Tennessee, Georgia and Utah is the climate. Sure this place is crazy but there are only 6 areas in the world with this Mediterranian weather we enjoy. California from the Bay Area to San Diego, Chile around Santiago, parts of South Africa, the North and East Mediterrainian area but towards the South only Tunisia and parts of Morrocco and 2 areas in Australia – near Perth and near Melbourne. Much of this country has only a small percentage of days it’s nice to be outside. Too often it’s muggy and buggy or freezing. Yes, we’re spoiled but many of us like our outdoors.
I’ve seen several of these manic cycles now and if you read some of the Doctors early posts you’ll see good information on how California land use policies have created these manic cycles. Every decade in SoCal has seen a doubling of home prices. The ’70’s were under $100k, the ’80’s under $200k, the 90’s $400k and the 00’s under $800k until the crash. Most of those houses are back up to 2006 values again though.
Hey, buy on the dips for the long haul and buy what you can afford. I recommend a couple roommates over the tent and shipping container route but we all have our preferences.
I want to dust this place off my feet but I’m a little cautious. I like the weather too.
What’s the big deal with this “Mediterranean climate” that SOME people enjoy? (Certainly not ALL of us.)
I grew up in New York City. I like crisp, cool autumns. I LOVE snow. I LOVE overcast skies. I hate heat and sun.
NYC usually has worse summers — hot and humid. But SoCal has been both hot AND humid this summer, so it’s been as bad as NYC.
I’m surprised anyone would be so obsessed with a “Mediterranean climate” that they chart its appearance around the world, from Chile to Tunisia.
Lots of people in England, Germany, Japan, Russia, and many other places. They’re not rushing to “Mediterranean” areas. They seem satisfied with their climates.
You don’t list the Caribbean as having a “Mediterranean climate,” yet I hear it’s pretty nice there. And plenty of people love the weather in Seattle and Portland.
I don’t get some people’s obsession with California’s climate. I don’t feel spoiled here. I feel hot and muggy.
Son of a Landlord…You are joking of course. Climate is huge to most people, the freedom of not enduring the dreaded winter is coming. I know many people who in summer think about Nov. 1st coming and when is May 31st so I can forget really lousy for a few months. Nobody would win a lotto and not think about a move to a warm sunny climate.
Long live the Sunshine swimming pool, and driving my convertible, radio blasting, on a twisting road at dawn or dusk with no fear of snow or ice or rain everyday I say, we are blessed. I have been to most places in America, when I tell them I lived in Ca. And now where we live to the person they say must be nice, if we only had the means or guts to move away?
Speaking strictly for myself, I consider Chicago’s brutal winters a small price to pay for our beautiful springs, summers, and falls, and for our lush greenery and densely treed streets, not to mention our top-tier cultural amenities that almost every working citizen can afford to enjoy, and our great architectural heritage, not to mention a large inventory of beautiful housing stock in nice neighborhoods for affordable prices. You will pay large for “prime” neighborhoods here, but there are dozens of non-wealthy neighborhoods with low crime, beautiful and architecturally significant housing stock, with friendly neighbors, reliable public transit, and plenty of retail you can walk to.
But what I really, REALLY appreciate is having 42 inches of precipitation a year (at least), and having 5% of the world’s supply of fresh water almost at my front door. There is nothing that scares me quite as much as a lack of water.
SOL –
Your post reminded me of this video at 6:45
http://comediansincarsgettingcoffee.com/bill-maher-the-comedy-team-of-smug-and-arrogant
You nailed every point. There’s a certain depth to climates with distinct seasonality that the monotonous SoCal climate cannot compete with. It might compete on sameness, dryness, and narrowness of temperature range, but the subjective likability of a climate for most people includes far more factors than just those.
Even the international global prime cities that some here strive to lump Los Angeles with, don’t have a Mediterranean climate and somehow seem to remain relevant to the desires of various masses.
And yes, it’s been getting hotter and more humid in recent years, even on the coast.
SoCal is suffering from the urbanization problem. Long time Californians, like my family, remember when this wasn’t a problem. The fires, landslides and warm nights were not a problem decades ago. That’s why a lot of us have left. There are still parts of the California Dream that are alive, but a lot of it is dead.
You probably have to be old like me to understand that…
The increase in humidity in CA is alarming. I am used to hot, dry summers. My parents retired to the Central Valley years ago and I don’t remember it being humid at all. When I went to visit a few weeks ago, it was muggy as all get out. LA was muggy too before I left. The climate is definitely changing and not for the best!
Hotel California,
That’s a good video. Perhaps you’ve also seen this one about Los Angeles panicking when it rains: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIiBYyBH25A
Yep, that was part of our decision to move to Oregon. My wife and I are pretty much miserable when it’s over 80 and sunny. In fact, we can’t believe how hot it’s been up here this year, and we can’t wait for the cool, wet season to come.
After growing up in Indiana, the weather up here in Oregon is nothing to worry about.
“Speaking strictly for myself, I consider Chicago’s brutal winters a small price to pay for our beautiful springs, summers, and falls, and for our lush greenery and densely treed streets, not to mention our top-tier cultural amenities that almost every working citizen can afford to enjoy, and our great architectural heritage, not to mention a large inventory of beautiful housing stock in nice neighborhoods for affordable prices. ”
Seriously Laura? I was just wondering the other day why the hell anyone still lives in Chicago, isn’t that the most corrupt city in the country next to Washington DC? Is there any doubt that property taxes need to be raised sky high throughout Illinois pretty soon? Obviously I’m just getting what I read in the papers, but things like that concern me even living in LA. When cities go broke the first thing they do is to steal money from real property owners because they know they have you hostage.
Why is the Mediterranean climate so appealing? I don’t know… 60-70 degrees 90% of the time and weather is NEVER a factor… All that and you can get to snow in a few hours drive? LOL
Laura seriously I lived in Chicago… It’s the worst. The summer finally comes after months of freezing cold and the Mosquitos stalk you like the zombie apocalypse. All that and state income and property taxes keep going up.
Housing policies is one of the reasons prices are so expensive in California. They should allow dense, high rise condo units to be built close to the beach so more people can enjoy the Mediterranean weather. Place like New York, Miami, and Chicago have dense high rise buildings…why can’t LA and San Francisco?
Dean..Born in Chicago, anybody who can afford it ask yourself this, Mailbu with negative edge pool view of Pacific drive to pacific coast Hwy in a conv.
Or live in Lake Forest a nice location, brown trees and landscape 7 months a year, shovel snow, slip on ice and drive in a heated car to look at a frozen Lake Micihgan in a city going bankrupt dur to pension fraud.
Ez…You are miserable at 80 degrees and sunny weather??? Enjoy Oregon come back to me in several years when you both get sick and tired of jackets and wish you could feel warmth again?I know many people who moved to the NorthWest and moved Back to CA. Or the SouthWest. I know this because when I Travel lot of Wash and Oregon plates in the SouthWest, when I go to Seattle or Portland don’t see many plates from warm climates?
Robert, not everybody has the same preferences as you. Based on the information provided, it sounds like you had a hard time in Chicago.
Robert, 60 degrees and sunny is too hot for me. 20 to 59 is my comfort zone. If the temp’s no lower than 20, I’m fine. I often walked 20s weather in NYC, and felt great.
I also LOVE shoveling snow. It’s one of the things I miss about NYC. It’s a good workout. Always enjoyed it.
Yes, it CAN get too cold. But not too often. One January night, it was 9 degrees. I thought to myself, okay, now I’m uncomfortable. 20 is fine. 9 is not.
BTW, nothing says you MUST slip on ice. You could just as easily say, “Live in Malibu and drown in your pool. Or live in a wintery wonderland.”
What has driven the Silicon Valley housing market since ’08– stock options and Chinese investors, can also drive it back down. Since ’08, generally speaking, the FAG stocks (FB,APPL,GOOG) are all up over 100%. If the average employee had 20,000 options, a $50/share increase translated to a $1M gain. Numerous instant millionaires, I’m guessing from 10,000-20,000 in the Bay area, including smaller IPOs, drove this manic cycle, along with the Chinese cash buyers.
But this engine will stop in its tracks if the US equity market levels off and the Chinese crash continues. US stock option money is only valuable if the stock price is increasing (e.g. underwater options). Apple stock is in a correction, down 15% in the last month, so don’t look for buyers from that group. FB and GOOG are selling at 1000x earnings and have likely peaked. Even worse, the Chinese market has already tanked, so the ultra-rich are suddenly not so rich, and cannot afford as much CA RE.
Can “normal” 20/80 buyers even buy into to today’s prices? That average 3/2 $1.3M townhouse with a view of a parking lot will require monthly payments of about $4.6K and an income of $260K/mo! That’s insane! Don’t count on this group paying with “earned income” (i.e. salary) to support RE prices. And these buyers will diminish with higher interest rates this fall.
The last bubble was driven by QE, this bubble was driven by VC money pouring into SV driving insane valuations.
As Mr. Tee in Rocky said– “I predict pain, lots of pain”!
Shipping containers were made into legal residences in Britain not long ago. Years ago I suggested they bring one of the mothballed troop transports from Suisun Bay in Solano County to a pier in San Francisco and use it for homeless housing. Other ideas included buying large igloo style dog houses to be deployed around the City to house derelicts. Of course these were shelters for the homeless not a single person making above the national median income but still unable to afford even a studio apartment. Now that a condo costs in excess of $1000 per square feet in San Francisco even a plastic igloo with a communal outhouse would be beyond the means of many working people.
I recall a friend in Terra Linda whose HOA bought up the surrounding hillsides in the 1980s to prevent any housing from being built on them. Well, if farmers with riparian water rights dating back to pre 1914 can have those rights taken away by the state it seems to me some of those pristine hillsides in Marin could be taken by eminent domain action and be converted into sites for housing. Sausalito is a pretty toney town and its got high density housing with a lot more charm than Terra Linda on its hillsides.
I fail to understand what kind of person accepts these conditions. It’s one thing to live under a bridge because you have no job or money. Just 10 years ago a lower middle class individual could rent an affordable studio for $700 in SF. Now, you can’t rent a room in a flat with 5 other people for $700, or rent a studio for less than $1700. Who can take a job in SF for any less than 70K/yr.
$70K/year in Bay Area won’t do it. Even at $100K/year you find that rent is 50% of take home. Only way this is manageable is if a couple who each make $100k/year live in a 1 bedroom place. One income goes to living, the other goes to saving. However, if the goal is to buy a house, retirement savings get left by the wayside. It’s not sustainable.
Exactly the point, pay now or pay later, and not in a good way. Households choosing to stay and work in places like S.F. are choosing living for today over saving for tomorrow. In many cases, that decision will come back to haunt them! Certainly the pay is enticing, but only those households making $200k/year, and who are still very money conscious have a chance at a future!
Ca.has always reminded me of the beatiful trophy wife. As soon as the avg women sees her without giving her a chance they hate her. When people sit in there frozen or rainy homes come Jan 1st Rose parade at sunny and 75, yep Harry ” I hate that place?
Back when I chose a city to settle in forever, I considered these warm-climate cities, especially Los Angeles with its exotic architecture and local interest. I like the place, ad back when I was young, costs were reasonable there, and infinitely cheaper than San Fran, which has always been an extremely expensive city. I had to decide on what I hate more: the summer heat or the winter cold? Since I have suffered two bouts of heat prostration, I decided I could tolerate the cold better if I had pleasant springs, summers, and falls. I also wanted an extremely large city with top cultural and entertainment amenities, good architecture, good public transit, and a lot of opportunity, but I balked at the cost of living in NYC, and Seattle and Portland are too small and too overcast nearly all the time.
I’d like to have a little studio apt to spend Jan and Feb in when I retire, but it’s not likely I’ll be able to afford a second home. So I’ll settle for two week winter breaks in warm places, and might prefer a different locale every year in any case.
Excellent Laura, happiness is where one lives is sometimes dictated by ones circumstances, for others who can afford it by choice. We have a rather beautiful planet, a persons health and enjoying life no matter what is falling or not falling from the sky is really important. My wife and I are content with our choice of life we have, if my wife was to have a serious illness than who cares anymore, as far as I’m concern everyday would be cloudy and gray. Weather, climate wouldn’t matter. stay safe
“Ca.has always reminded me of the beatiful trophy wife. As soon as the avg women sees her without giving her a chance they hate her”
Robert, I agree CA was once a beautiful trophy wife; now she’s a tough old broad with leathery skin, too much bad plastic surgery and silicone, lots of miles on her and not well taken care of, saying “ain’t I pretty? I don’t come cheap, either!”
hahaha
Drinks, so true and I was thinking the exact same thing when I read Robert’s post!
It couldn’t be more apropos that someone would choose to use the trophy wife as a metaphor for SoCal.
How San Francisco’s Progressive Politics Led to Its Housing Affordability Crisis
http://www.citylab.com/housing/2015/07/whats-the-matter-with-san-francisco/399506/
I used to live in the old part of an old suburban town in SoCal. The houses there were built from the 1880s to the Depression. There seemed to be two kinds of houses there: Really big ones and itty bitty ones. I had an 820 sq ft house that had a room addition made in the ’70s. It was even smaller before that. Since it had been a small town back then, there were small houses and big houses on the same block. The difference now is the new big houses and the new small houses are segregated.
A lot of people are just shaking their heads as to how expensive San Francisco is. Well a lot of people are paying these exorbitant prices. In Chicago the housing market has gone past peak prices and people are tripping over themselves to buy a house or condo. Money isn’t everything to some people. Different people have different values.
Yes, Nimish, I notice that the mania is on in prime Chicago neighborhoods like Lincoln Park, Wicker Park (ugh!), the near North Side, and the loop neighborhoods and people are paying nose-bleed prices for unimpressive dwellings in those nabes. Methinks many large borrowers are going to be extremely sorry they paid these prices, and that we are setting up for yet another wave of jumbo mortgage foreclosures down the road, because it is once more getting too easy to get a jumbo mortgage- major lenders are now loosening the terms for jumbo loans, reducing the down payment requirement to 15% and the minimum FICO score to qualify to 680, just a notch above subprime:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/j-p-morgan-loosens-terms-235900445.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=fb
But they are still getting a lot more for the money than they would in San Fran. Even in uber-expensive Chicago nabes, you at least get a good house for $1.3M, and a fantastic condo. Most of all, Chicago has dozens of non-prime neighborhoods that are still extremely nice places with high levels of safety and amenity. Peterson Woods, Saganash Park, Jefferson Park, North Park, West Ridge, Portage Park, Albany Park, and even some fine areas at the south end of town, like Beverly, offer a lot of beautiful housing stock for affordable prices. I bought a beautiful 2-bed condo in West Ridge for a price that feels like a gift, and while the neighborhood is not perfect, not being quite as close to the lake and el as I like to be, it is a solid, safe neighborhood with retail in walking distance, a reliable, fast bus line to the el, and a huge array of Middle Eastern restaurants, plus friendly neighbors. It is VERY safe, and filled with lovely architecture. I don’t even want to think what a place like mine would cost in San Francisco, NYC, or Los Angeles.
“Australia Orders More Foreign Homeowners to Sell”
“The orders could be the tip of the iceberg”
“crackdown on the abuse of homeownership laws by buyers from China and elsewhere”
“The treasurer said he plans to introduce new legislation into federal parliament in the next two weeks that will increase penalties for foreign investors who break the rules.”
“Third parties, such as real-estate agents and financial advisers, also may be prosecuted under the changes for assisting in an unlawful purchase.”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/australia-orders-more-foreign-homeowners-to-sell-1439024595
Considering that no one went to prison for contributing to the last economic meltdown, I doubt that such types of laws will ever be enacted in the U.S. Both parties are firmly in the hands of the elite 1%. The media always tends to point to higher prices as a barometer for economic recovery. Never mind that few of them will ever address the disastrous consequences of pricing out the next generation of home buyers.
SOL…No problem if cold or cool weather is your bag okay my grandfather was like you, a coal miner from Ill. and his motto ” suck it up or shut up.” After leaving Chicago-Denver we have lived in such nice climates for so long we couldn’t even think of 20, snow or rain, but that is our life not everybody’s.
The real issue we have with family and friends is about the lousy economy, which we feel has gone from depression to now a mild recession and maybe falling back to a full recession in the near future ( we pray it doesn’t happen)? take care
San Francisco is a city that reeks of urine. In the news last week was a story about lamp post that was destroyed by urine that fell in street at at Pine and Taylor streets and just missed a driver.
“We believe there was some contribution of dog or human urine on the base of the pole,†PUC spokesman Tyrone Jue said. “It has actually been an issue for us in the past. We encourage people and dogs alike to do their business in other places, like a proper restroom or one of our fire hydrants, which are stronger and made out of cast iron.â€
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/City-lamp-post-falls-and-urine-was-a-factor-6424634.php
I think folks in the high tech industry are way overpaid.Technology is evil. And the money hungry people who work for that sort of thing need to help their poor citizens least God has his wrath fall upon them. Remember give generously. Its gods will…As Jesus says the poor will always be with you.
The Lord commands us to give generously. And that the poor will always be with you. How the rich deal with their poor neighbors is a reflection on them. And quite frankly San Francisco you are failing. Maybe God should pour out his full wrath on you all and wake you up the old fashioned way. You wouldn’t like to have that. So go out and fix your city and quit complaining.
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